Final update: Actuator definitely needed to be replaced, but in the end so did my catalytic converter. My theory (backed by SCIENCE!) is that with the wastegate stuck open, that allowed a ton of air into the exhaust after the turbo. That extra air in the exhaust, which has oxygen (unlike the byproducts of combustion), heated up the cat to the point where all the good stuff that causes the catalytic reaction to burn up, so it didn't actually do anything anymore. Managed to find a replacement APR cat (from a GTI midpipe kit), popped it in last night after work, and was emissions-ready in 10 miles. A frustrating as hell saga, but it's finally over, well over $2k later.
Definitely gotta get that old IS38 sold to soften my expenses a bit....