This is a complicated question.
Many different variables come into play here.
Tire brand, tire size, suspension mods, wheel offset, etc. I've seen two different cars with the exact same setup, one had rubbing issues and the other didn't. So there is also a certain amount of fitment variability that boils down to your specific car. You look to be lower than springs, and you didn't mention what you are lowered on.
If you are on a progressive spring such as KW Coilovers, there's a better chance of rubbing as the wheel moves more over bumps, etc. If you are a linear spring whether it's on coilovers or just lowering springs, you have a better chance of avoiding rubbing, but it depends on how low you are. This topic has also been beaten to death, and you can find lots of threads on this topic.
I wouldn't run an et38, but that's just me. If you put a 245 tire on that wheel, you are just asking to rub. There are some that rub on 245s on lowering springs, but again, it depends on the tire manufacturer. Michelins tend to be the most popular and they run about a full size large. There is an ever so slight stretch with a 235 PS4 on a 8.5" wheel.
Wish there was an easy answer for you, but it's all about testing the fitment that's specific to your car. As low as you are and with your aggressive wheel spec, I'm surprised you aren't already rubbing. I'd play it safe and stick with a 235, just with a different tire brand, one that's known to run a little larger. Your pictures above don't seem to show much of a stretch. A Michelin PS4 would have a more squared off tire profile and would look less stretched.
im on et38 so i think i will have clearance issues
