uglybastard
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The Sausage King of Moscow
7
Ukraine: WAR Huh - What Is It Good For Absorootly Nothing
- Thread starter Corprin
- Start date
cb1111
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Or was he the spam king. In any case, two Russian rich guys who said nasty things about Putin die in an Indian hotel a couple of days apart and authorities say there is no foul play...
uglybastard
Autocross Champion
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- Mk6 GTI
uglybastard
Autocross Champion
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- Mk6 GTI
Right kind of king, wrong city
cb1111
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Putin’s Got Ukraine Drama: His Military Is ‘Bleeding’ to Death (msn.com)
Vladimir Putin Takes Fellow National Leaders 'To Strip Club Owned By Ex-Mistress' In Bid To Boost His Plummeting Popularity (msn.com)
Russia Searching for Soldiers Who Are Abandoning War 'En Masse': Ukraine (msn.com)
Lavrov says US has guaranteed it will not send specialists to Ukraine to instruct on Patriot use (msn.com)
Hollande: ‘There will only be a way out of the conflict when Russia fails on the ground’ (msn.com)
Putin's latest ploy to ship more Russian soldiers to Ukraine is offering free sperm banks (msn.com)
Full List of Russians Who Fell to Their Deaths This Year (msn.com)
Putin Critic's Death In India Shrouded In Mystery — Who Were The 2 Russians Who Died Days Apart? (msn.com)
Second sudden death of top official reported in Russia's military supply chain in less than a week (msn.com)
Putin's latest ban on oil sales could backfire on Russia, experts predict (msn.com)
Zelensky to parliament: ‘Ukraine is on track to victory that all generations have dreamed of’ (msn.com)
Ukraine announces arrest of oligarch in upscale French ski resort after accusing him of financial crimes (msn.com)
Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons if Ukraine Wins War, Italian Minister Warns (msn.com)
Too high losses: Russia loses over 500 soldiers in 24 hours (msn.com)
Kremlin Says No Peace In Ukraine Until They Give Up Territories | Watch (msn.com)
Russian ruble slides to level not seen since April as Moscow concedes sanctions are squeezing the economy (msn.com)
Putin The Desperate? Russia May Want to Negotiate on Ukraine (Or Not) (msn.com)
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe collapse to a post-Soviet low (msn.com)
Russia strikes back: massive missile fire (msn.com)
General Staff: Ukraine hits multiple Russian personnel concentration areas on Dec. 27 (msn.com)
How Putin's war destroyed Russia's business model (msn.com)
Moscow To Achieve Ukraine Goals Thanks to ‘Patience’ - Lavrov (msn.com)
Zelensky agrees to Ukraine rebuild investment with BlackRock CEO (msn.com)
Zelensky agrees to Ukraine rebuild investment with BlackRock CEO (msn.com)
‘Slow, nasty, grueling’: Ukrainian counter-offensive on Donbas front could hold key to course of winter war (msn.com)
Russia rejects peace plan: Selenskyj should recognize the ’new reality‘ (msn.com) Maybe Putin should…
Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Russian soldiers involved in Bucha massacre identified (msn.com)
Russia Puts Christo Grozev, Journalist Featured In ‘Navalny’ Documentary, On “Wanted” List (msn.com)
Germany supports Ukraine’s proposal for an international peace conference (msn.com)
Ukraine War May Be 'Nail in the Coffin' for Putin's Empire: Economist (msn.com)
Russia warns US against ‘decapitation strike’ targeting Putin (msn.com)
Hungry Russians Heartbroken As Domino's Pizza Set To Close Down Stores Over Putin's War In Ukraine (msn.com)
cb1111
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I guess that is one step down from roadkill....
cb1111
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- Virginia, USA
A former colleague of mine, who has been lecturing on Machiavelli for years, wrote this article that is quite interesting.
The Sunday New York Times featured an eight-page article about the war in Ukraine, which they analyzed the many reasons for the disastrous failure of “Putin’s War.”
In reading it, you might be tempted to assign much of the blame to bad luck and Putin’s feckless advisors. But you’d be wrong, according to Niccolò Machiavelli. The fact is, Putin himself picked the men in his informal kitchen cabinet, shutting out his official advisors, many of whom did not know of the impending invasion until it started.
What lessons should Putin have drawn from Niccolò Machiavelli’s advice?
First. value loyalty over competence, but only by a little. “In forming an opinion about a ruler’s brains, the first thing is to look at the men he has around him, for when they are adequate and loyal he can be considered prudent.”
The advisors that Putin selected “were loyal to him above all,” but their backgrounds suggest that they are only minimally competent at best, and were more interested in their own advancement than in protecting Putin:
Putin selected Yevgeny Prigozhin, who “had long been a crony,” and rose to prominence as a caterer of Kremlin events, to lead the Wagner Group, a powerful band of mercenaries and recruited convicts. Putin’s picked his former bodyguard to oversee the Russian national guard. Putin has stuck with Sergei Shoigu, his defense minister “who had no [previous] military experience,” and with General Garasimov, chief of the military’s general staff, “who are still trying to maintain the illusion that everything is going well.”
Putin left his official advisors in in the dark. Constantin Zatulin, a senior Putin ally and “long known as a leading expert on Ukraine,” got his first inkling that Putin intended to wage war on Ukraine in mid-February, right before Putin invaded. “No one told the deputy minister, and even some members of the Russia’s security council weren’t told until the last minute.” Why? Did Putin fear disloyalty, that they would leak it? Or that they would oppose his plans?
Secondly, according to Machiavelli, “a prince who is not wise himself cannot be advised well.” According to the NYT, Putin is “a celebrated tactician,” but he is not wise, otherwise he would not have surrounded himself with sycophants. Described as “supremely confident” by the head of the CIA who met with him last year, he sees himself as a restorer of the Russian Empire and has “spiraled into self-aggrandizement.”
He styles himself as a pivotal figure astride a millennium of Russian history – as he hinted when he unveiled a statue of Vladimir the Great, the medieval prince of Kyiv in 2016.” In June, Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, as a leader “returning” and “strengthening” Russian lands. According to a former Putin ally, “If everyone around you is telling you that you are a super-genius for 22 years, then you will start to believe that this is who you are.”
So, where does Putin’s hubris, his refusal to listen to anyone but himself, and his grandiose sense of destiny lead? A long dragged-out war with the West? “People who know Putin say he is ready to sacrifice untold lives and treasure for as long as it takes…. No matter how many Russian soldiers are killed or wounded on the battlefield, Russia will not give up.”
Or the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or worse, if he sees that war in Ukraine cannot be won any other method? That’s the big, unanswered question.
The Sunday New York Times featured an eight-page article about the war in Ukraine, which they analyzed the many reasons for the disastrous failure of “Putin’s War.”
In reading it, you might be tempted to assign much of the blame to bad luck and Putin’s feckless advisors. But you’d be wrong, according to Niccolò Machiavelli. The fact is, Putin himself picked the men in his informal kitchen cabinet, shutting out his official advisors, many of whom did not know of the impending invasion until it started.
What lessons should Putin have drawn from Niccolò Machiavelli’s advice?
First. value loyalty over competence, but only by a little. “In forming an opinion about a ruler’s brains, the first thing is to look at the men he has around him, for when they are adequate and loyal he can be considered prudent.”
The advisors that Putin selected “were loyal to him above all,” but their backgrounds suggest that they are only minimally competent at best, and were more interested in their own advancement than in protecting Putin:
Putin selected Yevgeny Prigozhin, who “had long been a crony,” and rose to prominence as a caterer of Kremlin events, to lead the Wagner Group, a powerful band of mercenaries and recruited convicts. Putin’s picked his former bodyguard to oversee the Russian national guard. Putin has stuck with Sergei Shoigu, his defense minister “who had no [previous] military experience,” and with General Garasimov, chief of the military’s general staff, “who are still trying to maintain the illusion that everything is going well.”
Putin left his official advisors in in the dark. Constantin Zatulin, a senior Putin ally and “long known as a leading expert on Ukraine,” got his first inkling that Putin intended to wage war on Ukraine in mid-February, right before Putin invaded. “No one told the deputy minister, and even some members of the Russia’s security council weren’t told until the last minute.” Why? Did Putin fear disloyalty, that they would leak it? Or that they would oppose his plans?
Secondly, according to Machiavelli, “a prince who is not wise himself cannot be advised well.” According to the NYT, Putin is “a celebrated tactician,” but he is not wise, otherwise he would not have surrounded himself with sycophants. Described as “supremely confident” by the head of the CIA who met with him last year, he sees himself as a restorer of the Russian Empire and has “spiraled into self-aggrandizement.”
He styles himself as a pivotal figure astride a millennium of Russian history – as he hinted when he unveiled a statue of Vladimir the Great, the medieval prince of Kyiv in 2016.” In June, Putin compared himself to Peter the Great, as a leader “returning” and “strengthening” Russian lands. According to a former Putin ally, “If everyone around you is telling you that you are a super-genius for 22 years, then you will start to believe that this is who you are.”
So, where does Putin’s hubris, his refusal to listen to anyone but himself, and his grandiose sense of destiny lead? A long dragged-out war with the West? “People who know Putin say he is ready to sacrifice untold lives and treasure for as long as it takes…. No matter how many Russian soldiers are killed or wounded on the battlefield, Russia will not give up.”
Or the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or worse, if he sees that war in Ukraine cannot be won any other method? That’s the big, unanswered question.
cb1111
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- Virginia, USA
Russian labor shortage bites economy in November, unemployment at record low (msn.com)
Vladimir Putin's Top Tank Commander DIES SUDDENLY Hours After Russian Leader Cancels Meeting To Discuss War In Ukraine (msn.com)
Putin Is Shaking with Anger: Could Ukraine Really Take Back Crimea? (msn.com)
Miss Ukraine commended for ‘badass’ appearance at Miss Universe pageant (msn.com)
Bakhmut on the Brink as Wagner Group Suffers Heavy Losses Across Region—ISW (msn.com)
Ukraine does not rule out that the missile intercepted by Belarus was launched by Russia (msn.com)
Russian ambassador in Sofia says she does not know why Russia is looking for Bulgarian journalist Christo Grozev (msn.com) Uh-oh, she’ll be falling out of a window soon.
No more possibility of defense? Attack on Russian military airfield (msn.com)
In 24 hours: Russia loses over 700 soldiers (msn.com)
The seeds have been sown to end the war in Ukraine (msn.com)
Kazakhstan to deport Russian major who fled his country over war (msn.com)
Weakened Putin Orders Show of Strength While Hiding in His Bunker (msn.com)
Russia plans to disrupt Western arms supplies to Ukraine: Lavrov (msn.com) You mean they haven’t been up to now?
Sudden Russian Death Syndrome (msn.com)
Four Senior Russians Died Suddenly Over Christmas (msn.com)
Russian missile strikes across Ukraine targeting electricity infrastructure | Watch (msn.com)
Russia launches massive missile barrage across Ukraine (msn.com)
What are Russians really thinking about the war? (msn.com)
How China Is Using Vladimir Putin (msn.com)
First Javelins. Then HIMARS. Now Patriot. What’s next? (msn.com)
Russia Pledges to 'Never' Run Out of Rockets After Launching Massive Strike (msn.com)
A Russian soldier has been arrested for beating a captain to death while 'intoxicated' (msn.com) There will be very quick trial and he’ll be sent to the front lines
Russia Already at War with U.S., 'Collective West': Lavrov (msn.com)
Supporting Ukraine and countering China top the Pentagon's 2023 to-do list (msn.com)
Russia's Troops in Belarus Insufficient for Ukraine Attack: Border Chief (msn.com)
Russians Face Freezing to Death As They Run Out of Fuel To Heat Homes (msn.com)
Russia Has Caused 17,831 Civilian Casualties in Ukraine: U.N. (msn.com)
Putin's Disgruntled Troops Intensify Battle Between Key Allies (msn.com)
Russian State TV Host Admits War 'Depletes' Country in 'Every Way' (msn.com)
German double agent passed Ukraine intelligence to Russia, had access to NSA info (msn.com)
Murder, Putin wrote? (msn.com)
EU insists there will be «no impunity» for Russia after latest «senseless» attacks on Ukraine (msn.com)
All sophistry and deceitful tongues wagging… “Correct reading” of Putin’s statement by the “evil emperor”. (msn.com)
Haines talks 'pre-butting' Russian disinformation on Ukraine (msn.com)
cb1111
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Russia 'Struggling to Counter Air Threats' on Its Own Territory: U.K. (msn.com)
Putin's inner circle is frustrated because the Russian president 'doesn't know what to do' with war in Ukraine, report says (msn.com)
Russian diplomat, Indian politician spar over oligarch’s death (msn.com)
Russia's Yandex co-founder Volozh pens farewell message to staff (msn.com)
Ukrainian soldiers say tough battle underway for gateway city of Kreminna | Watch (msn.com)
Ukraine strikes back: 50 Russian soldiers „liquidated (msn.com)
'Senseless barbarism': Russia pummels Ukraine's power and water sectors: Live updates (msn.com)
Putin dogged by more health rumors as he 'cancels multiple key events' (msn.com)
Xi and Putin seek greater cooperation, but Russia's failures in Ukraine may strain relationship, expert says (msn.com)
‚Catastrophic consequences‘: Ukrainian missile strikes Belarus (msn.com)
This Is Not Good: A Missile from Ukraine Went into Belarus (msn.com)
Xi tells Putin that road to peace talks on Ukraine will not be smooth (msn.com)
Putin Can’t Fix This Disaster: Is Russia Running Out of Troops in Ukraine? (msn.com)
Ukraine – Pro-Russian authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk regions adopt constitutions (msn.com)
Putin 'using deepfakes and body-doubles' to cover for 'ailing health' (msn.com)
Putin Turns Up the Heat on Ukrainian Sympathizers in Russia (msn.com)
General Staff: Large group of Russian soldiers killed near occupied Donetsk amid continued assault on region (msn.com)
U.S. Is Giving Russia 'Sanctuary' From Long-Range Strikes: Ex-U.S. General (msn.com)
Putin’s former top space engineer dies after facing corruption charges (msn.com)
Russia Loses 5 Ammunition Warehouses, Radar Station in Single Day: Ukraine (msn.com)
Putin Ends Year With a Trail of Embarrassing Losses (msn.com)
Kremlin showing cracks as Putin fires another general, British Intelligence says (msn.com)
Russia Says Integration of Annexed Land in 'Full Swing' Amid Massive Losses (msn.com)
Ukraine sees reduction in number and frequency of missiles launched by Russia (msn.com)
Russia claims to have prevented an attack in the Caucasus planned by Ukrainian authorities (msn.com)
Putin's War 'Deadlocked' After Months of Brutal Combat: Intelligence Chief (msn.com)
To Survive Ukraine’s Air-Defenses, Russian Pilots Fly Low And Lob Rockets. It Might Not Be As Inaccurate As It Seems. (msn.com)
cb1111
Newbie
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- Virginia, USA
Reznikov tells Russians they have 'one week left' before borders close (msn.com)
Russia running low on missiles - Ukrainian MOD (msn.com)
Retired general: A weak Russia would be satisfying for Xi | Watch (msn.com)
Putin's thug army: Russia deploys soccer hooligans to Ukraine as war drags on (msn.com)
Vladimir Putin 'Gets Tired Quickly' & Suffers 'Frequent Bouts Of Dizziness & Headaches' As His Failing Health Continues To Deteriorate (msn.com)
Russia outlines plan for 'unfriendly' investors to sell up at half-price (msn.com)
Donbas resident who joined Russian military gets 15 years (msn.com)
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Air Defenses Again Activated In Sevastopol (msn.com)
Russia Follows Ukraine Missile Barrage With Wave of Drones (msn.com)
Ukraine Says Fresh Russian Drone Strike Overnight Largely Repelled (msn.com)
Russia running low on missiles - Ukrainian MOD (msn.com)
Retired general: A weak Russia would be satisfying for Xi | Watch (msn.com)
Putin's thug army: Russia deploys soccer hooligans to Ukraine as war drags on (msn.com)
Vladimir Putin 'Gets Tired Quickly' & Suffers 'Frequent Bouts Of Dizziness & Headaches' As His Failing Health Continues To Deteriorate (msn.com)
Russia outlines plan for 'unfriendly' investors to sell up at half-price (msn.com)
Donbas resident who joined Russian military gets 15 years (msn.com)
Ukraine Situation Report: Russian Air Defenses Again Activated In Sevastopol (msn.com)
Russia Follows Ukraine Missile Barrage With Wave of Drones (msn.com)
Ukraine Says Fresh Russian Drone Strike Overnight Largely Repelled (msn.com)
cb1111
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A bit early for the Lunar New Year, but the closest spam I could find.
Putin took cancer drugs that warped his decision-making on Ukraine, Danish intel says, reviving disputed theories about his health (msn.com)
Putin invaded Ukraine after 'cancer drugs brought on megalomania' (msn.com)
Russia 'Quickly Running Out' of Weapons Putin Needs in Ukraine: General (msn.com)
Ukrainian Forces Launching Bakhmut Counters as Russian Progress Slows: ISW (msn.com)
Media: Explosions reported in Dzhankoi airport in Russian-occupied Crimea (msn.com)
Zelensky: World will never forgive ‘Russian terror’ (kyivindependent.com)
Putin gives government one and a half months to set up commission to develop drones (msn.com)
Putin uses New Year address for wartime rallying cry to Russians (msn.com)
Putin to allow «unfriendly countries» to pay their gas debts with their respective currencies (msn.com)
Official: Russia demolishes 50 multi-story buildings in occupied Mariupol (msn.com)
Putin Can’t Solve This Ukraine Disaster: Russia is Running Out of Troops (msn.com)
Russia's war in Ukraine shows why troops need to learn to put their phones away, top US Marine general says (msn.com)
Zelensky says Russia waging war so Putin can stay in power 'until the end of his life' (msn.com)
Ukraine conflict casts shadow on Russia as it enters 2023 (msn.com)
Russia’s defense minister congratulates military and assures that victory in Ukraine is «inevitable.» (msn.com) Must be nice living in an alternate universe
Russia readies air defenses over Moscow, gives shelter maps to border city ahead of New Year (msn.com) Why would they do that? They’re winning, right?
Russia grants tax amnesty to encourage troops fighting in Ukraine (msn.com)
Police: 2,200 cases of collaboration with Russia under investigation (msn.com)
UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely to strike at Ukraine over holidays to undermine people's morale (msn.com)
President Vladimir Putin said in his New Year's address Saturday that "moral, historical rightness" is on Russia's side as his country faces international condemnation for its offensive in Ukraine. (msn.com)
Putin is destroying you, Zelensky tells Russians (msn.com)
Russian military toasts to Putin in New Year celebration | Watch (msn.com)
Western sanctions hamper Russia's economy, but Ukraine war still rages at year's end (msn.com)
Russia investigating journalist over failure to disclose Israeli citizenship (msn.com)
Russian State TV Split Over Russian Pensioner Being Dragged From Bus (msn.com)
Putin accuses West of «lying about peace» as it «prepared for aggression» (msn.com)
Putin’s Dream Can’t Come True: That China Comes to the Rescue in Ukraine (msn.com)
Ukraine suspends agreement with Russia on use and protection of border waters (msn.com)
Ukraine repels Russian drone attack after massive bombing raids | Watch (msn.com)
‘Where Are We Heading?’: Wartime New Year Prompts Russian Soul-Searching - The Moscow Times
Russia ends the year by killing, wounding, displacing civilians (msn.com)
cb1111
Newbie
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- Virginia, USA
Let's close out the year with this
Speculation Swirls as Putin Accused of Using Same Woman in Multiple Photos (msn.com)
Putin Should Be Shocked: Ukraine Keeps Killing Russia’s Best Tanks (msn.com)
Putin Is Angry: Ukraine Destroyed 58 Russian Cruise Missiles in One Day (msn.com)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russians are ‘following the devil’ after the country launched a wave of New Year’s Eve attacks on Ukraine: ‘No one in the world will forgive you for this’ (msn.com)
Global Landmarks Turn Out The Lights In Solidarity For Ukraine | Watch (msn.com)
US helped Ukraine target Russian generals, sink Moskva, book reveals (msn.com)
Putin Throwing Away Two Decades of Success in Ukraine War: Former Diplomat (msn.com)
Missiles slam Kyiv as Putin and Zelensky trade insults in New Year’s speeches (msn.com)
Governor: 2 groups of Russian drones cross into Ukraine's skies (msn.com)
General Staff: Several Russian missiles fall in Russia amid New Year’s Eve strike (msn.com)
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy thanks Germany for support (msn.com)
On New Year's, Putin slams West for hypocrisy, aggression (msn.com)
Ukraine's Zelenskiy in New Year message: "I want to wish all of us one thing – victory" (msn.com)
Speculation Swirls as Putin Accused of Using Same Woman in Multiple Photos (msn.com)
Putin Should Be Shocked: Ukraine Keeps Killing Russia’s Best Tanks (msn.com)
Putin Is Angry: Ukraine Destroyed 58 Russian Cruise Missiles in One Day (msn.com)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russians are ‘following the devil’ after the country launched a wave of New Year’s Eve attacks on Ukraine: ‘No one in the world will forgive you for this’ (msn.com)
Global Landmarks Turn Out The Lights In Solidarity For Ukraine | Watch (msn.com)
US helped Ukraine target Russian generals, sink Moskva, book reveals (msn.com)
Putin Throwing Away Two Decades of Success in Ukraine War: Former Diplomat (msn.com)
Missiles slam Kyiv as Putin and Zelensky trade insults in New Year’s speeches (msn.com)
Governor: 2 groups of Russian drones cross into Ukraine's skies (msn.com)
General Staff: Several Russian missiles fall in Russia amid New Year’s Eve strike (msn.com)
Ukraine updates: Zelenskyy thanks Germany for support (msn.com)
On New Year's, Putin slams West for hypocrisy, aggression (msn.com)
Ukraine's Zelenskiy in New Year message: "I want to wish all of us one thing – victory" (msn.com)
cb1111
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- Virginia, USA
And start the new year with this one - Here's an interesting article from the WSJ - quoted below as it is behind a paywall.
You may have already seen but this is THE best analysis yet on war in Ukraine and the need for a Ukrainian victory.
Wall Street Journal: Putin Wants Ukraine Back in the USSR
A hundred years ago, on Dec. 30, 1922, representatives of the “Ukrainian socialist republic” initiated a formal agreement with Russia and the republics of Belarus and Transcaucasia to create a new nation, the Soviet Union. The agreement was puzzling because Lenin had said repeatedly that the goal of socialism was the fusion of all nations, and his slogan was: “The proletariat has no fatherland.”
But agreement to a new country, which defined itself as a union of independent national republics each with the formal right to secede, was a tactical move to contain Ukrainian nationalism. It held together for 69 years. But it couldn’t last forever, because it was based on lies.
Today’s Russian spokesmen insist that Ukraine is an “artificial nation.” Yet the only artificial nation was the Soviet Union, which re-created the Russian Empire on the basis of socialism. Russians, Georgians, Ukrainians, Yakuts and Uzbeks were citizens of one country, but the only thing they shared was the false reality of communist ideology. When that ideology collapsed in 1991, the result was the emergence of 15 historical nations, including Russia and Ukraine.
The Soviets defined class as the motive force of history and subordinated national culture to ideology. Each Soviet republic had its own government and parliament, but their only responsibility was to carry out the edicts of the Communist Party leadership in Moscow. The regime promoted national languages and cultures, but everything that was printed or performed had to treat each nation’s history as an upward struggle that culminated in becoming part of the Soviet Union.
In the 1920s, the communists needed Ukrainian-speaking cadres to strengthen their position in Ukraine, which had been the scene of peasant uprisings in 1919. Ukrainian language instruction, Ukrainian newspapers and lectures to miners in Ukrainian all increased.
Nothing, however, could protect Ukraine from the horror that was visited on the Soviet Union as a whole and reached its apex with the creation of the Gulag, dekulakization (the destruction of the most industrious peasants) and the famine of 1932-33. The last was caused when the Soviet government confiscated grain to feed the cities and for export, imprisoned peasants in their villages and left millions to die from starvation. Ukraine, the agricultural breadbasket of the nation and a potential center of national resistance, suffered disproportionately. Of the seven million victims of the famine, more than half were in Ukraine.
For more than 50 years, it was forbidden to mention the famine, but with the accession of Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 and the policy of glasnost, what had long been whispered began to be discussed openly. Memorial services were held in Ukrainian villages for the victims, and Rukh, the Ukrainian movement for national independence, used the memory of the famine to rally support for an independent Ukraine.
On Dec. 1, 1991, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, 90% of Ukrainian voters voted for independence. In the heavily ethnic Russian Donetsk oblast, almost 77% supported independence. In pro-Russian Crimea, the vote for independence was 54%. A week later, Boris Yeltsin, Leonid Kravchuk and Stanislav Shushkevich—respectively the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus—met at a lodge in Belarus’s Belovezh Forest and signed a statement certifying that the Soviet Union ceased to exist. Gorbachev resigned on Dec. 25, and the upper chamber of the Soviet Parliament, the Supreme Soviet, ratified the union’s dissolution the following day.
The birth of an independent Ukraine realized the national aspirations thwarted after the Bolshevik revolution. But there would be no peace for Ukraine, because the moral damage inflicted by the Soviet regime outlived it. That was particularly true in Russia, where property was seized by insiders, gangsters and ex-communist officials and the leaders used war to rally the population around a corrupt regime.
The First Chechen War, in 1994-96, was started, according to a high official, because President Yeltsin needed “a short, victorious war” to increase his approval rating. The Second Chechen War began after the bombing of Russian apartment buildings in 1999 that took some 300 lives. According to all evidence, the bombings were carried out by the Federal Security Service, or FSB. They were used to justify a new invasion of Chechnya, which made it possible for Vladimir Putin to become president.
In 2014 the seizure of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine distracted Russians from the meaning of the democratic Maidan revolt in Kyiv. As a result of the annexation of Crimea, Mr. Putin’s popularity reached a high of 82%, and Russia was swept with chauvinistic euphoria. The present attack on Ukraine resulted from the perception of U.S. weakness after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Mr. Putin’s desire to restore the “Crimea effect” that buoyed his regime for five years before beginning to wane.
Some foreign-policy “realists” in the U.S. blame the present war on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but Russia’s desire to dominate Ukraine isn’t new. On Aug. 27, 1991, while the Soviet Union still existed, Pavel Voshchanov, Yeltsin’s press secretary, warned that Russia would re-examine its borders with any republic that didn’t want to be part of a new union. There were reports in the Moscow press based on leaks that in the event of a conflict, the Russian leadership was considering tactical nuclear strikes against Ukraine. In 1993, well before the first expansion of NATO into the former Eastern Bloc in 1997, Russia was laying the groundwork for future aggression, defining as a threat to Russia “acts against the Russian population” in any neighboring country.
When the imaginary world of Soviet ideology collapsed, all that was left in Russia was rule by criminals and the drive to dominate Russia’s neighbors to guarantee their hold on power. It is against this background that we need to weigh support for Ukraine.
Russia’s inability to rid itself of the Soviet legacy is the underlying cause of the war. If Ukraine cedes territory, the Soviet imperialist mentality will survive intact. Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War (1853-56) led to the emancipation of the serfs, and defeat in the Russo-Japanese war (1904-05) led to Russia’s first constitution. We need to support a decisive Ukrainian victory to punish aggression—and to free Russia from the burden of its past.
David Satter is author of “Age of Delirium: the Decline and Fall of the Soviet Union.” He is an academic adviser to the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.
David Satter - Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)
You may have already seen but this is THE best analysis yet on war in Ukraine and the need for a Ukrainian victory.
Wall Street Journal: Putin Wants Ukraine Back in the USSR
A hundred years ago, on Dec. 30, 1922, representatives of the “Ukrainian socialist republic” initiated a formal agreement with Russia and the republics of Belarus and Transcaucasia to create a new nation, the Soviet Union. The agreement was puzzling because Lenin had said repeatedly that the goal of socialism was the fusion of all nations, and his slogan was: “The proletariat has no fatherland.”
But agreement to a new country, which defined itself as a union of independent national republics each with the formal right to secede, was a tactical move to contain Ukrainian nationalism. It held together for 69 years. But it couldn’t last forever, because it was based on lies.
Today’s Russian spokesmen insist that Ukraine is an “artificial nation.” Yet the only artificial nation was the Soviet Union, which re-created the Russian Empire on the basis of socialism. Russians, Georgians, Ukrainians, Yakuts and Uzbeks were citizens of one country, but the only thing they shared was the false reality of communist ideology. When that ideology collapsed in 1991, the result was the emergence of 15 historical nations, including Russia and Ukraine.
The Soviets defined class as the motive force of history and subordinated national culture to ideology. Each Soviet republic had its own government and parliament, but their only responsibility was to carry out the edicts of the Communist Party leadership in Moscow. The regime promoted national languages and cultures, but everything that was printed or performed had to treat each nation’s history as an upward struggle that culminated in becoming part of the Soviet Union.
In the 1920s, the communists needed Ukrainian-speaking cadres to strengthen their position in Ukraine, which had been the scene of peasant uprisings in 1919. Ukrainian language instruction, Ukrainian newspapers and lectures to miners in Ukrainian all increased.
Nothing, however, could protect Ukraine from the horror that was visited on the Soviet Union as a whole and reached its apex with the creation of the Gulag, dekulakization (the destruction of the most industrious peasants) and the famine of 1932-33. The last was caused when the Soviet government confiscated grain to feed the cities and for export, imprisoned peasants in their villages and left millions to die from starvation. Ukraine, the agricultural breadbasket of the nation and a potential center of national resistance, suffered disproportionately. Of the seven million victims of the famine, more than half were in Ukraine.
For more than 50 years, it was forbidden to mention the famine, but with the accession of Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 and the policy of glasnost, what had long been whispered began to be discussed openly. Memorial services were held in Ukrainian villages for the victims, and Rukh, the Ukrainian movement for national independence, used the memory of the famine to rally support for an independent Ukraine.
On Dec. 1, 1991, as the Soviet Union disintegrated, 90% of Ukrainian voters voted for independence. In the heavily ethnic Russian Donetsk oblast, almost 77% supported independence. In pro-Russian Crimea, the vote for independence was 54%. A week later, Boris Yeltsin, Leonid Kravchuk and Stanislav Shushkevich—respectively the leaders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus—met at a lodge in Belarus’s Belovezh Forest and signed a statement certifying that the Soviet Union ceased to exist. Gorbachev resigned on Dec. 25, and the upper chamber of the Soviet Parliament, the Supreme Soviet, ratified the union’s dissolution the following day.
The birth of an independent Ukraine realized the national aspirations thwarted after the Bolshevik revolution. But there would be no peace for Ukraine, because the moral damage inflicted by the Soviet regime outlived it. That was particularly true in Russia, where property was seized by insiders, gangsters and ex-communist officials and the leaders used war to rally the population around a corrupt regime.
The First Chechen War, in 1994-96, was started, according to a high official, because President Yeltsin needed “a short, victorious war” to increase his approval rating. The Second Chechen War began after the bombing of Russian apartment buildings in 1999 that took some 300 lives. According to all evidence, the bombings were carried out by the Federal Security Service, or FSB. They were used to justify a new invasion of Chechnya, which made it possible for Vladimir Putin to become president.
In 2014 the seizure of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine distracted Russians from the meaning of the democratic Maidan revolt in Kyiv. As a result of the annexation of Crimea, Mr. Putin’s popularity reached a high of 82%, and Russia was swept with chauvinistic euphoria. The present attack on Ukraine resulted from the perception of U.S. weakness after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and Mr. Putin’s desire to restore the “Crimea effect” that buoyed his regime for five years before beginning to wane.
Some foreign-policy “realists” in the U.S. blame the present war on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but Russia’s desire to dominate Ukraine isn’t new. On Aug. 27, 1991, while the Soviet Union still existed, Pavel Voshchanov, Yeltsin’s press secretary, warned that Russia would re-examine its borders with any republic that didn’t want to be part of a new union. There were reports in the Moscow press based on leaks that in the event of a conflict, the Russian leadership was considering tactical nuclear strikes against Ukraine. In 1993, well before the first expansion of NATO into the former Eastern Bloc in 1997, Russia was laying the groundwork for future aggression, defining as a threat to Russia “acts against the Russian population” in any neighboring country.
When the imaginary world of Soviet ideology collapsed, all that was left in Russia was rule by criminals and the drive to dominate Russia’s neighbors to guarantee their hold on power. It is against this background that we need to weigh support for Ukraine.
Russia’s inability to rid itself of the Soviet legacy is the underlying cause of the war. If Ukraine cedes territory, the Soviet imperialist mentality will survive intact. Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War (1853-56) led to the emancipation of the serfs, and defeat in the Russo-Japanese war (1904-05) led to Russia’s first constitution. We need to support a decisive Ukrainian victory to punish aggression—and to free Russia from the burden of its past.
David Satter is author of “Age of Delirium: the Decline and Fall of the Soviet Union.” He is an academic adviser to the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.
David Satter - Foreign Policy Research Institute (fpri.org)
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