Concerns about supply of MK7.5 GTIs in the coming months/year?

[norsairius]

I've been a bit of a lurker here and recently participated in a few threads, but I've jumped back on the Golf forums lately because some nice incentives have come about for the MK7.5 GTI. I had a 2008 DSG GTI and a 2010 manual GTI in the past and I've tried a few cars since the MK6 left the stable, but I miss the GTI a lot so I'm interested in getting back into one.

I currently have a lease though so the negative equity being rolled in to the financing for the new car is a big deterring factor on moving forward with purchasing one right now, as it should be. However, I think I'd be even more upset if I ended up waiting to do this purchase later only to find that the supply of GTIs has become constrained enough that I'd have a hard time finding one or a decent deal on one.

I've gotten a few quotes and dealers have generally offered buyout/trade-in deals that are coming in such that the negative equity that'd be rolled into the financing would be ~$1k to ~$2k less than the total of my remaining lease payments.

I know it's very difficult, if not impossible, to know how things will work out in the coming months, but has anyone heard or seen anything that would indicate that new GTIs may be more difficult to come by in the coming months?

I've been an impulsive buyer in the past so I'm open to any wisdom on the matter in general too.

 

[Diggs24]

negative equity? dumb idea

 

[bentin]

Well, 2020's having the shorter warranty and limited colors is likely to make them less sought after. 2021's will likely be a hard sell with the Mk8 arriving later that year and already being out in the ROW.
Since you have a lease to ride out, can you wait for a second year Mk8? Just seems like VW always screws up the first model year.

 

[norsairius]

negative equity? dumb idea

That's primarily what's holding me back from doing this, haha. I'm mostly asking because I'd hate to find myself in a position where I'd have a hard time finding the car I want and instead "settling" for something that I know I wouldn't be satisfied with. Considering how much I value the driving experience that cars offer for me, it'd drive me insane to have to do that. Granted, that's admittedly an unlikely scenario, as far as I know, hence why I'm asking. All that said, I get it and agree with you.

Well, 2020's having the shorter warranty and limited colors is likely to make them less sought after. 2021's will likely be a hard sell with the Mk8 arriving later that year and already being out in the ROW.
Since you have a lease to ride out, can you wait for a second year Mk8? Just seems like VW always screws up the first model year.

My lease will end before the MK8 will hit US shores, so I'd be looking for an MK7.5. While I actually like the way the MK8 looks, I wouldn't be upset with missing out on the new looks or the bump in power if I were to get an MK7.5. I otherwise don't care for the digital dash and I actually don't like the idea of the all-touch controls for HVAC, etc.

 

[david9962000]

I would try www.swapalease.com

I don't think there will be a shortage of 2020's unless the Factory in Mexico is still closed due to Covid.

 

[Corprin]

How many miles are you going to eat at lease end? How much are those miles worth to you? How much is owning a ‘19 worth to you.

we turned in our Tiguan SE lease 10mo early, and came out eating about $800 when the dust settled. Then Covid happened, and we were glad to have eaten that $800. The miles not driven would have been worth far more in terms of loss.
Most importantly, worth it for my wife getting the exact alltrack she wanted.

 

[vj123]

I dont see foresee any shortage for 2020 or 2021 MK7.5s in US.

How long are you planning to keep your MK7.5 once you buy it. If you are planning to keep it for a while, $1k negative equity would not matter much if you grab a leftover 2019 with longer warranty.

 

[norsairius]

I would try www.swapalease.com

I don't think there will be a shortage of 2020's unless the Factory in Mexico is still closed due to Covid.

The closure of the factory and disruptions in the supply chain and any negative impacts to supply are my concern. I've read that American car companies are having issues getting the supply chain restarted because of their reliance on parts from Mexico, but that kind of disruption could be a problem regardless of where the cars are being built and where the parts come from considering the global nature of the pandemic. I get that there's efforts to reopen now, but I wonder how bad a second wave of COVID-19 cases might be and what the impact would be on production and therefore supply.

I know I'm borrowing trouble though as we don't actually know if the supply chain and production issues will persist or if a second wave will be any worse.

I dont see foresee any shortage for 2020 or 2021 MK7.5s in US.

How long are you planning to keep your MK7.5 once you buy it. If you are planning to keep it for a while, $1k negative equity would not matter much if you grab a leftover 2019 with longer warranty.

I plan to keep it long enough to pay it off and barring any quantum leap in the GTI's performance/features, keep it for an appreciable amount of time after that. After having a BMW 335i for a bit, I found even that was more than enough power for public roads. The GTI seems just right where I can have fun driving it without always being at "arrest me" speeds.

The warranty isn't a huge deal since the MK7.5 platform has proven to be fairly reliable, so a 2019 isn't that important, though it would be nice.

All that said, I think with what everyone's said here, I'll wait and keep an eye out on how things trend with the broader situation at hand but otherwise hang tight until the lease is done or there's at least no more negative equity.

If I were faced with this decision even just a few years ago, I probably would have just picked up the GTI already, but I'm at least a bit wiser now, haha.

Thanks for your input, everyone!

 

[Zodiac]

Your remaining payments on your lease and the payoff amount are different...

If you are basing your negative equity on your remaining payments you are doing it wrong.

I assume it’s a chase lease since it’s a Mazda I would call them and verify your 10 day payoff if you were to trade/sell car to a dealer.

Used car values are coming down so it may not be in your favor.

See what vroom and carvana will offer for the car. It’s online and takes a couple mins.
I have sold 2 leased cars last year to vroom and pocketed several thousand dollars each time. All depends on how good your deal was.

Just note new dealer aggressive incentives and interest rates will be more in their favor in the coming weeks as the economy starts to open back up.

 

[norsairius]

Your remaining payments on your lease and the payoff amount are different...

If you are basing your negative equity on your remaining payments you are doing it wrong.

I assume it’s a chase lease since it’s a Mazda I would call them and verify your 10 day payoff if you were to trade/sell car to a dealer.

Used car values are coming down so it may not be in your favor.

See what vroom and carvana will offer for the car. It’s online and takes a couple mins.
I have sold 2 leased cars last year to vroom and pocketed several thousand dollars each time. All depends on how good your deal was.

Just note new dealer aggressive incentives and interest rates will be more in their favor in the coming weeks as the economy starts to open back up.

Yeah, I know. I was looking at the negative equity as being the payoff quote (which I got from logging in to my account) minus what the dealers have been willing to give for a trade in. I otherwise looked at the total amount of my remaining lease payments mostly for comparison's sake.

I agree that incentives and interest rates may become less favorable to buyers as the economy opens back up, and it has factored in to my considerations a bit, but I think that would just be even more of a sign for me to hang tight for now. Considering where the economy is in general, I think it's possible low interest rates may stick around for a while longer at least. While I'd love to get 0% APR financing, the negative equity situation doesn't make it worthwhile yet to jump on it.

 

[Corprin]

32,000 @ 1.9% x60mo = $33,569

32,000 @ 0% x60mo = yep, $32,000

What is your loss looking like?

 

[david9962000]

Also, most loans don't have pre-payments penalties so you can refinance down the road as well.